Since declaring the fall of the former regime in Syria, there has been talk of the return of Syrian refugees, whose number amounts to over 6 million refugees all over the world. News stations circulated scenes of gatherings describing Syrian refugees on the Lebanese and Jordanian borders wishing to return to their country, and some European countries announced the temporary suspension of processing of asylum applications from Syrians until the dust settles and the situation in Syria becomes clearer. In Jordan in particular, the return of more than 18,000 refugees has been announced since the fall of the former regime.
In this article, we try to show the considerations and determinants that governed the return of Syrian refugees in the previous period, especially after there were several projects and initiatives by the former regime in Syria on the one hand, and by some host countries that encouraged their voluntary return on the other. So, what has limited the return of Syrian refugees before? And based on that, what are the set of conditions that must be met for their return? And how can we estimate the speed of that return, should it come to pass?
The years 2016 onwards witnessed the issuance of many "general pardon" decrees by the former Syrian regime that included many segments of the Syrian people, but failed to achieve a significant return. This was due to many reasons that caused their fears and those of their families to persist, preventing them from returning. In addition, insecurity in Syrian towns and villages has been a major factor in preventing return, as the prevalence of various types of crime has created a sense of fear among refugees.
The economic factor has also had a significant impact. Many refugees have lost their former jobs in the public and private sectors, while self-employed people have suffered the destruction or loss of their workplaces and tools or had to sell them. Agriculture, which was the main economic activity for many of them, has become almost impossible due to the destruction of infrastructure.
Economic sanctions on Syria have also darkened the prospects, limiting trade and weakening the local economy. These conditions have made refugees see return as an impractical option, especially as living conditions continue to deteriorate.
On the other hand, assistance and services by international and local organizations to refugees in host countries, such as food, education, health, protection services, and legal aid, provided them with a basic safety net. This assistance, although limited, has been viewed by many refugees as a better choice than returning to uncertain conditions inside Syria, where this kind of support isn’t provided by the various organizations.
There is no doubt that the recent changes in Syria have removed many of the previous obstacles for many Syrian refugees, as the idea of the return of people who, for example, previously worked in the army and in the security forces or political convicts may not be as dangerous as before. However, while the new changes in Syria have provided a solution for these issues, that does not mean that all obstacles are gone.
All of the above are basic factors and determinants, but they are not the only ones that Syrian refugees who are thinking of returning are worried about, as they’re wondering whether the obstacles have been removed, and are trying to compare the pros and cons of a speedy return to their villages, cities, and areas from which they were displaced, as opposed to waiting a little until they are assured that conditions are better. Some of them cannot afford the cost of returning and settling down in Syria, and some of them may need time to put their affairs in order in the host countries first.
There are many issues related to the lives of Syrian refugees and those who wish to return, which they expressed when they came to the Arab Renaissance for Democracy and Development (ARDD) for legal advice and in search of answers to the questions that concern them.
In the past few years, many Syrian refugees have resorted to ARDD for legal advice, as ARDD worked to answer their questions about a range of issues related to their presence in Jordan and the possibilities of their return to Syria. For example, some of these questions revolved around the requirements necessary to facilitate their return to Syria; what are the official papers they need to be able to return? Will UNHCR provide any assistance to them on the Jordanian-Syrian border? They also asked if they could visit Jordan after returning to Syria in case they needed to return for one reason or another, and there were questions about their ability to take their children or the children of their relatives with them in case they decided to return, and the documents required in that case. There were also questions related to refugee cases that are under consideration by the Jordanian judiciary, what would be their legal status in this case? As well as other questions about issues and topics that are confusing or unclear to them. Clarifying these issues will help them to develop plans to return and settle down, and to make the decisions they deem appropriate.
We must also remember that Syrian refugees have been in Jordan for many years, which means that they have established a life here, and some of them have children now or have children who are in school. Some young people may now be studying at universities, and some refugees may have established their own businesses, have stable jobs, or have certain obligations they need to fulfill. Each of these issues has legal ramifications and raises many questions about the possible solutions. Hence, despite all the circumstances, challenges, and uncertainty of the current scene, ARDD continues its work to extend a helping hand, help refugees, answer their inquiries, and provide as much assistance to them as possible.
All these issues confirm that Syrian refugees are not just waiting for the situation in Syria to clear up. On the contrary, some of them have begun to think about making plans for their return and thinking about ways to make them overcome the first period of their return with the challenges and difficulties it may entail. Some Syrian families have also begun to think that one or several of them should return to Syria so that they can establish the ground that would enable them to return and settle down, especially families with young children who want to ensure that they have a place to stay and the ability to care for them in an environment where the various services are available in the best possible way.
Without a doubt, local civil society institutions have played and will play a pivotal role in providing various services to the Syrian refugees wishing to return home. In the past few weeks alone, legal aid and guidance were provided, and dozens of inquiries were answered on many issues related to Syrian refugees and their return.
In conclusion, what we can expect from the current indicators is that the voluntary return of Syrian refugees to Syria will take place in waves, and the speed of these waves is linked to the speed by which political, social, and economic stability is achieved. The clearer the picture in Syria is and the more the situation stabilizes, the more Syrians will want to return, and international and local organizations will have a great responsibility to assist those who decide to return, by ensuring that the basic conditions of life are met in the areas to which they intend to return. In its position on the return of Syrian refugees, UNHCR has indicated some issues that need to be clarified before it issues detailed guidance to decision-makers, and has called on “all asylum States to suspend the issuance of negative decisions on applications for international protection by Syrian nationals or by stateless persons who were former habitual residents of Syria.” Considering the continued challenges in Syria.
ARDD will continue to monitor everything related to the situation of Syrian refugees on Jordanian territory, including those who wish to return. In the next series of blogs, we will shed light on the most prominent issues related to Syrian refugees, the most urgent legal, social, and economic aspects, and the role that local civil society institutions play and must play in the coming stages.
